Monday, 14 October 2019

Election 2019 Canada

This election has me terrified.

The last dozen elections I have mostly voted for the environment.  Last federal election I swallowed and voted for the NDP—because voting Liberal was too much of a betrayal of my core beliefs; I can't do it this year too, there is too much at stake.

It's the environment, Stupid!

The environmental projections for the policies of the four major national parties was just released.  The Conservative Party was the worst, they plan to scrap the Carbon Tax and rely on incentives for businesses to update their systems. The Liberal Party will stay the course with the Carbon Tax and this will allow a 12MT reduction over the Conservatives.  The NDP will keep the Carbon Tax, scrap pipelines, and remove government subsidies from Oil Producers, and this will reduce Carbon by a few more MT than the Liberals.  In 2030, they will be far above the target they all promised to hit from the Paris Accord.  The Green Party is projected to meet and exceed the targets set for 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2050.  The gulf is about 200MT. They want to ban imports of oil, end pipelines and begin switching the economy over to renewable energy sources.

There is a recession coming, the Americans under Trump have been trying to tank the world economy in three years and are doing an awesome job, so you know as soon as that recession hits, every government will begin telling people that now is not the time to be environmentally friendly.  I say a recession is the best time to switch over.

The other thing is the only reason why I would consider voting liberal last time was that he said he would bring in Electoral Reform.  He bailed on it of course. Electoral Reform would mean the end of Majority governments, until they were good enough to actually get more than 50% of the support of people; they can't, so they didn't.  Now there is a possibility that the Liberals or the Conservatives will win a majority with less than 34% of the popular vote and if this happens, I WILL RIOT!  I don't know where, but I will. 

Girlfriend, Natural20, says that if the conservatives win the most seats but not a majority, it will be the best thing, because the Liberals would need the support of the Greens and the NDP, but I don't see it that way.  I see it as the Liberals will need the support of the NDP and the Bloc Quebecios, and maybe the Greens.  And I see the conservatives ramping up the troops like they did in the early 2000s when the left tried to do it then, saying that making a deal with the Bloc was making a deal with the Devil.  They held on to power with that corrosive rhetoric until the Liberals caved.  Liberals, enough liberals might cross the floor to give the Conservatives their Majority.  

How could I say that?  The Liberals and the Concervatives paint each other as angels and demons, but the gulf between them is not as great as it is between the liberals and the NDP, the Bloc and certainly, the Greens.  Which is why Electoral reform is so needed, but sadly, this is more likely than what we really need, a radical change in Environment policy.  Ripping the bandaid of carbon production off thirty years ago would have hurt, but it would have been over.  Doing what is needed today will be like getting thrown down an embankment, because we will need to make much harsher moves now to prevent drastic climate change.  In another four years, if nothing is done it may be too late, but we will have to make changes that will be like getting hit by a car, deep sudden changes that may kill the patient, but possibly leaving them injured for a long time.

Everytime we delay making the changes needed, the changes we need to make become more extreme, because the less extreme measures won't do anything anymore.