Sunday, 2 December 2018

Action or Bust on carbon

There have been studies, I have known that they were coming for years, I knew what they would find: the world is warming faster than the worst case predictions and radical action is needed to stave off the worst of the effects and we have to do it yesterday.  I say, the worst of the effects, because if we reduce all emissions to pre-industrial levels, positive feedbacks will still raise the levels of the ocean and cause widespread droughts and floods and the icecaps will still melt; bye-bye the world as you know it.  If they reduce the amount of carbon in the world back to pre-industrial levels, then no-dice; we will still have climate change, but we will avoid the worst effects.  

What we need to do, is accelerate changes that people are reluctant to make.  I see little chance of that happening.  We need a stick and a place to run.  The stick is to make fossil fuel energy prohibitively expensive. Raise the cost of gasoline and diesel by a full dollar every six months, except for public transit, raise the cost of fuel for public transit a dollar every year.  Make electric vehicles inexpensive— make tiny electric vehicles virtually free, cars more expensive and larger vehicles more, but still cheaper than gas powered vehicles of those types now.  The gas tax will help with that.  The gas tax will help with building more power generation, all power generation will be carbon free, and make local power generation a priority, that is local to your home.  

Industry will, no must be fully electric in five years.  The only exception would be production facilities that are producing green energy materials, as increasing the means to get off carbon is the first priority.  An option for a pass on carbon production would be if they can remove 120% of the carbon they produce in the operation of their factory, meaning they are not carbon neutral but actively remove carbon from the environment.  Which brings me to the next point, it is not enough to be carbon neutral, the world must be be carbon negative.  The air absorbs our carbon emissions, the oceans absorb the atmosphere's carbon, the oceans are changed by that carbon—they are acidifying; we must remove the carbon we have been putting in the environment for decades.  Only by doing this last point will we mitigate the worst effects of climate change have a chance to make it to the next millennium.  For now, reducing our carbon output to zero is the goal.  It cannot be overstated the importance we reach this goal as soon as possible.

I will now list the effects of climate change from least to greatest if we don't do this soon.

1) increased storms and unseasonal weather, leading to crop losses.  Fires

2) population displacement leading to war.  The civil war in Syria was caused by an internal population displacement because of a drought caused by climate change, it caused mass external migration which lead to the rise of Nationalism in Europe, which will likely cause more war.  This is one drought.  What will happen when the sea levels rise enough and storms increase to the point that regions are flooded and people are internally displaced all over the world, more civil wars and international wars.  Disease.  People will fight for their little corner of creation and gradually we will be all in the poor house, but wars will be fought with fossil fuels and bombs will set off fires that will burn uncontrollably increasing carbon production ending in:

3) acidification of the oceans to the point that the oxygen producing organisms die and go extinct.  World oxygen levels drop and all mammals and animals that can not survive with 10% oxygen levels die and go extinct.  It turns out that fires require more than 10% atmospheric oxygen to burn fuel, so plant biomass will quickly build up and get buried and the world will reset eventually after building up coal reserves again.  Who knows maybe some reserve of ocean oxygen producing critter will survive and oxygen will bounce back too.  Too late for us though, we will have been dead eons by then.

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